Hanoi (VNA) – In the first quarter of 2025, Vietnam’s agro-forestry-aquatic production grew 3.74%, the highest increase in the first quarter over the past four years.

♔ Dang Ngoc Diep, Director of the Department of Planning and Finance under the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, noted that despite mergers of units and personnel changes, the agriculture and environment sectors stayed well in the black for the first three months of this year.

Specifically, agro-forestry-aquatic product exports reached 15.72 billion USD, a 13.1% increase compared to the same period last year. Of that, agricultural product shipments fetched 8.53 billion USD (up 12.2%), forestry product exports 4.21 billion USD (up 11.2%), aquatic product exports 2.29 billion USD (up 18.1%), livestock product exports 131.3 million USD (up 18.5%), with production inputs up 19.6%. Vietnam reached a trade surplus of nearly 4.4 billion USD, increasing by 13.1% year-on-year. Diep emphasised that this was a relatively good result amid many economic and social challenges over the past three months including plant and animal diseases, falling prices for some export items, and stricter import standards and increasing inspection frequencies for imported agricultural goods in some countries. Particularly, information about the US announcement of reciprocal tariffs including the 46% rate on Vietnamese products has caused a significant shock to businesses in agriculture and aquaculture, especially those involved in processing and exporting wood to the US. Tran Quang Bao, Director of the Department of Forestry and Forest Protection, said that in the first quarter of 2025, indicators including afforestation, fire prevention, wood harvesting, wood and forestry product exports, and environmental service payments were mostly positive. For instance, the forestry sector reported over 49,000 ha of newly planted forests (up 12.6%); wood production exceeded 4.3 million cu.m, (up 16.6%); and over 836 billion VND was collected from forest environmental services. Notably, the export value of wood and forestry products increased, with a surplus of approximately 3.5 billion USD. However, Bao also noted that some businesses' import-export activities have been impacted by a lack of specific information for necessary adjustments.

Meanwhile, in the first quarter of 2025, both the number of forest fires and the fire-hit area dropped.

Growth scenarios in response to US tariff

In response to the US reciprocal tariff, the ministry has developed three growth scenarios for the second quarter of this year. Firstly, with a 0% tariff, Vietnam’s agro-forestry-aquatic exports in the second quarter can achieve set targets. Secondly, a 2% tariff will result in a 10.7% reduction in exports, with growth rates decreasing by 0.15% to 0.2%. Thirdly, if the US keeps a 46% tariff, growth rates could drop by about 0.3% to 0.4%. Bao from the Forestry and Forest Protection Department said that after learning about the US’s 90-day tariff postponement, the department, together with the Vietnam Timber and Forest Products Association, has developed a detailed outline on the entire Vietnam-US import-export situation to provide reports for negotiation delegations. Additionally, following the first phase of the investigation into wood material imports into the US, Bao said his department, along with Vietnamese businesses, has provided explanations. "Since 2021, the US has launched three anti-dumping investigations into legal wood and wood imports from abroad. All of these have concluded with the US requiring Vietnamese businesses to fully declare and submit documentation from the past five years for traceability when needed," he said. Regarding tasks for the second quarter and beyond, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment said that it will continue to direct efforts to achieve growth targets for the sector and the total import-export value of agriculture, forestry, and aquaculture. The ministry plans to address issues to expand export markets and approach new promising markets such as Muslim countries, the Middle East, India, the Republic of Korea, and Africa. The ministry will closely follow the developments of US tax impositions, speed up negotiations with the US, and apply proactive solutions to mitigate adverse impacts on businesses and farmers. Additionally, it will coordinate efforts to support trademark protection and geographical indications for Vietnam's potential export products abroad. Furthermore, State management agencies in agriculture and the environment will enhance inspections against illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing; continue reporting to the European Commission (EC) on Vietnam’s efforts in combating IUU fishing, implementing EC recommendations; and report to the Prime Minister on fisheries and fishermen projects through 2030, with a vision to 2045./.