Hanoi, August 14 (VNA) - 🍰In the waning months of 2025, Vietnam’s aquatic industry finds itself at a crossroads, caught between the turbulence of new US tariffs and trade potential of untapped markets. As exporters scramble to pivot toward new regions and refine their offerings with value-added processing, the sector is poised for a frenetic finish to a year marked by both ambition and adversity.

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), July exports reached 971 million USD, up 6.1% from a year earlier. For the first seven months, total shipments swelled to 6.22 billion USD, a striking 17.2% surge. VASEP Deputy General Secretary To Thi Tuong Lan attributed the growth to a frenetic rush to ship orders to the US before August 1 when Washington’s new reciprocal tariffs kicked in.

Key exports under tax pressure

Vietnam’s three major aquatic exports, including shrimp, tra fish, and tuna, now face the squeeze of a 20% US reciprocal tariff ♉effective on August 7, which places the country at a competitive disadvantage compared with Ecuador’s 15% and Indonesia and the Philippines’ 19%, making its seafood pricier than the rivals.

Tra fish exports, which climbed 11% to 1.22 billion USD in the first seven months, are bracing for impact. Sales to China are stalling out due to overflowing inventories, and those US tariffs inflate costs further. Exporters are now casting their nets toward ASEAN, South America, and the Middle East to sustain the momentum amid these headwinds, Lan noted.

Shrimp, Vietnam’s top seafood export, hauled in a massive 2.49 billion USD during the period, up 23.6%. But the US market, a major cash cow, is cooling off under the weight of those tariffs. Worse, the US Department of Commerce’s 19^th꧒ administrative review (POR19) imposed preliminary anti-dumping duties as high as 33.29% on some big Vietnamese shrimp players in June. Should these duties hold in the final ruling this December, Vietnam’s shrimp industry risks being locked out from the US, a blow that could ripple through coastal communities reliant on this trade.

Tuna exports, meanwhile, are floundering, down 2.8% to 542 million USD from January to July, with July alone nosediving nearly 19%. Domestic regulations under Decree 37, which prohibit mixing local and imported catches and mandate a minimum 0.5m size for skipjack tuna, have exacerbated existing raw material shortages. Combined with higher tariffs than those faced by competitors in Ecuador, the Philippines, and Indonesia, Vietnam’s tuna industry finds itself navigating treacherous waters.

Opportunities through market, product diversification

It’s not all bad news, though. Markets in China, ASEAN, and Japan are bouncing back, and the EU is relaxing technical barriers, offering a pathway for high-value processed products. Trade deals like the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), and UK-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (UKVFTA) are giving Vietnam a leg up with sweet tariff breaks. VASEP forecast full-year exports to hit 9–9.5 billion USD, with shrimp pulling in 3.6–3.8 billion USD, tra fish 2 billion USD, tuna 850–900 million USD, and other aquatic products close to 3 billion USD. To make it happen, Lan pushed companies to secure raw materials supply, improve quality, invest in processing tech, and chase niche markets in CPTPP economies, ASEAN, and further afield. Firms should focus on convenient, value-added products like breaded shrimp and ready-to-cook items, while expanding into hotspots like the Middle East, Africa, Japan, Australia and the EU, she said. She also urged the industry to keep branding Vietnam’s seafood as a high-quality, healthy, affordable, and eco-friendly alternative, capable of rivaling the allure of functional foods in global markets./.