A gradual U-shaped recovery is expected for the ASEAN+3 region, which includes ten ASEAN member states, China, Japan and the Republic of Korea, according to an updated forecast by ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO).
Singapore (VNA) – A gradual U-shaped recovery is expected for the ASEAN+3 region, which includes tenASEAN member states, China, Japan and the Republic of Korea, according to anupdated forecast by ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO).
Regionalgrowth is expected to slow sharply this year to zero percent, from 4.8 percent in 2019, beforerebounding strongly to 6.0 percent in 2021, AMRO said in a statement.
Nine of the 14ASEAN+3 members are expectedto contract this year, while economies projected to record positive growthrates are China and smaller ASEANeconomies – Brunei, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam.
Strictcontainment measures to prevent the coronavirus from spreading have causedeconomies to come to a standstill, leading to massive increases inunemployment, disruptions to businesses, and widespread collapse in domesticdemand.
Additionally,bans on international travel have decimated the region's all-important tourismsector.
AMRO said theresurgence in infections in some parts of the region had heightened cautionabout another spate of lockdowns, which the ASEAN+3 economies can ill-afford,even though most still have some fiscal and monetary space to provide supportif needed.
Li Lian Ong, AMROgroup head and lead specialist for financial surveillance and acting group headfor regional surveillance, said the biggest challenge facing the regionalpolicymakers in the second half of 2020 would be balancing the trade-offbetween easing restrictions to revive their economies and risking another waveof infections.
AMRO said itsgrowth trajectory was predicated on the effective containment of the COVID-19,both regionally and globally./.
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