Hanoi (VNS/VNA) - Standard Chartered Bank forecasts Vietnam’seconomic growth at 7.2% in 2023 and 6.7% in 2024, following a solid recovery to8.0% in 2022.
The forecast is highlighted in the bank’s recently published global researchreport on Vietnam, titled “Vietnam – Still enjoying high-growth status”.
“We still have a conviction on Vietnam’s high growth potential over the mediumterm,” said Tim Leelahaphan, Economist for Thailand and Vietnam, StandardChartered. “While macro indicators moderated somewhat in Quarter 4 2022, theyremain largely robust. Retail sales posted solid growth in the second half of2022, implying improved domestic activity.”
According to Standard Chartered’s economists, trade balance has tentativelyimproved; exports may face global headwinds; imports are at risk of reversal.FDI disbursements have continued to increase, but the outlook hinges on theglobal economy. Inflation may pose a threat to Vietnam’s continued recovery.
Inflation is anticipated to rise throughout 2023, potentially reaching 6% inthe final months of the year and averaging 5.5% in both 2023 and 2024 (from 3.2%in 2022). Vietnam’s fiscal deficit may persist and be a source of inflation.
Standard Chartered Bank expects the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to hike ratesby another one% in Quarter 1 2023 and to stay on hold through end-2024 as itshifts to a tightening stance with a view to maintaining stability.
“We expect the central bank to stay vigilant against inflation, a weakeningVietnamese dong, and financialinstability arising from risky loans in the real-estate sector. The SBV mayprefer a relatively strong Vietnamese dong,as long as it does not harm the country’s trade competitiveness,” said TimLeelahaphan, Economist for Thailand and Vietnam, Standard Chartered.
According to Tim, the Vietnamese dong hasrecovered sharply in recent weeks, however, the pace of Vietnamese dong appreciation is likely to slowdown, as several headwinds persist. The replenishment of FX reserves is likelyto be a key priority for the central bank. An improving Current Accountbackdrop and tourism recovery is likely to be supportive to the Vietnamese dong. The USD/VND exchange rate is forecastat 23,400 by end-2023 and 23,000 by end-2024./.
The Vietnamese Government pledges to create favourable conditions for Standard Chartered Bank to maintain and expand its business operations in the country, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh said on September 5.
Financial institutions and the world’s top credit rating agencies’ forecasts on Vietnam’s economic growth are completely founded, said Russia’s Sputnik radio.
Standard Chartered Bank has raised its Vietnam GDP growth forecast for 2022 to 7.5% from the previous 6.7% and for 2023 to 7.2% from 7.0% to reflect robust Q3 growth of 13.7% year-on-year. The last quarter 2022 growth is anticipated at 4.0%.
Corporates from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are optimistic about their businesses in Vietnam, with 58% having existing or future plans to expand sales in the country.
China’s Laoling city, in coordination with VINEXAD, hosted a series of events in Ho Chi Minh City from August 7-9 to seek trade and economic cooperation with Vietnam.
Vietnamese Ambassador to Cambodia Nguyen Minh Vu led a delegation to Mondulkiri, Ratanakiri, and Kratie provinces from August 5-8, aiming to deepen economic ties and support Vietnamese businesses operating in Cambodia’s northeastern region.
Party General Secretary To Lam’s upcoming state visit to the Republic of Korea (RoK) is expected to mark a new milestone in the bilateral relationship, creating fresh momentum for trade and investment cooperation between the two countries.
In the context of the growing global digital economy, digital transformation and the promotion of e-commerce are key drivers helping Vietnam boost integration, enhance competitiveness, and expand export markets, according to the Vietnam E-commerce and Digital Economy Agency
Tilapia is considered highly competitive in export markets thanks to its affordability, ease of processing, and appeal across both high-end and mass-market segments.
In the first seven months of the year, Phu Tho attracted an impressive 651.7 million USD in foreign direct investment, including 35 newly licensed projects totaling 119 million USD in registered capital and 45 existing projects with an additional capital of 533 million USD.
Under the agreements, VinEnergo will invest in, install, and operate 43 MWp of rooftop solar power capacity and 45 MWh of BESS capacity across the three plants.
Under a draft to amend and supplement the Government's Decree 125/2020/ND-CP on administrative sanctions for violations of tax and invoice regulations, the Ministry of Finance has proposed classifying the failure to issue invoices into five different levels. Infraction levels will correspond to fines of 1 million VND to 80 million VND, depending on the nature and number of invoicing violations.
A new airline developed and invested by Sun Group — has officially announced a strategic partnership with Amadeus IT Group (Amadeus), one of the world’s leading travel technology companies. This agreement not only lays the foundation for a modern digital infrastructure but also marks a pivotal step in SPA’s global expansion strategy, enabling the airline to access international distribution networks and reach customers worldwide.
Of the total, 107,700 were new firms, with combined registered capital of 928.4 trillion VND (35.4 billion USD), up 10.6% in number and 5.5% in capital compared with the same period last year.
Experts agree that a combination of technology, enforcement, education and cross-border cooperation is essential to protect copyrighted content in Vietnam’s growing digital ecosystem.
Poland is Vietnam’s largest export market in Central and Eastern Europe, with key staples including seafood, textiles, footwear, coffee, and cashew nuts.
Cashless payments are growing at an impressive rate, averaging 30–40% annually. Vietnam’s per capita cashless transaction volume now trails only China, with total value of 295.2 quadrillion VND (11.26 trillion USD), or 26 times of its GDP.
A draft resolution on piloting a digital asset and cryptocurrency market is being developed, aiming to create a broad-enough regulatory sandbox that enables investor participation and provides practical grounds for policy refinement in areas such as risk management and anti-money laundering.
Illustrative image (Photo: VNA) 
