K-Research revises down Thailand’s GDP projection to minus 6 pct
The Kasikorn Research Centre (K-Research) has revised down its economic projection for Thailand to minus 6 percent from the previous minus 5 percent amid a highly uncertain global economy.
Bangkok (VNA) – The Kasikorn Research Centre (K-Research) has revised down its economic projection for Thailand to minus 6 percent from the previous minus 5 percent amid ahighly uncertain global economy.
Though Thailand’s first quarter GDP fared better than expected, theeconomy is expected to see a sharp contraction during the remainder of the year,with rising unemployment, assistant managing director NattapornTriratanasirikul said at press conference on June 2.
Meanwhile, the overall global economy remains a concern given the highlevel of COVID-19 infections reported daily andthorny US political issues, both domestic and international, K-Researchsaid while cutting its 2020 GDP projection to minus 6 percent.
A K-Research survey using a random samplingof 1,000 Thais shows that the respondents are worried about loominguncertainties and this has prompted them to boost savings and tighten spendingeven more.
As evidenced, household spending has contracted more sharply than theprevious estimate, K-Reasearch said. However, because thelevel of public debt is not presently a cause for concern, the government stillhas sufficient fiscal resources to assist ailing businesses after the lockdownhas been eased.
The tourism, automotive and property industries are three importantsectors that will require more time to recover than others, said KevalinWangpichayasuk, another K-Research assistantmanaging director.
In terms of employment, the government may need to focus its reliefmeasures on the tourism industry, with priority being placed on the mostaffected travel-related businesses and workers, because the sector employs asmany as 4 million people, K-Research said.Overall, major Thai businesses may take more than a year to recover to theirpre-COVID-19 levels, it warned.
The Bank of Thailand’s monetary policy is another important tool thatcould prove useful in case the situation worsens, and there is leeway forfurther reduction of the policy rate. Nonetheless, the current situation hasnot yet hit a level that would require the implementation of a negativeinterest rate policy, K-Research added./.
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Thailand's capital Bangkok (Source: picswe.com) 
