Hanoi (VNS/VNA) - Home loans will be a driver forretail credit growth in the near future as interest rates keep cooling down andthe real estate market recovers from the second half of 2024, analysts predicted.

In a recent report, analysts from Vietcombank Securities Company(VCBS) said they expected a recovery of the real estate market from the secondhalf of this year when the actual demand for buying houses to live in is stillhigh and the need for property investment increases again.

Retail credit is decelerating as demand for consumer loans, homepurchases, car purchases and property investments all decline. The proportionof retail credit of total outstanding loans decreased from 47% at the end of2022 to 46% at the end of the third quarter of 2023.

According to VCBS, home loans have been the main growth driver formany years with a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26%. However,growth slowed in 2023 due to high interest rates and a frozen real estatemarket. At the end of the third quarter of 2023, outstanding home loansdecreased by 1 percentage point over the same period of the previous year,accounting for 13.8% of total outstanding loans.

VCBS forecasts loans for real estate and construction enterpriseswill continue to increase rapidly, but there will be a differentiation incapital access between real estate segments and enterprises in the market.Specifically, credit will focus on the affordable real estate segment thatserves real housing needs, industrial parks and transportation infrastructureconstruction.

However, part of the credit will be disbursed to real estateenterprises, which face financial difficulties, for the purpose of debtrestructuring.

VCBS reported that by the end of the third quarter of 2023,outstanding loans to real estate enterprises and construction sector loans ofcredit institutions increased by about 13.4% since the beginning of the year,higher than the credit growth of the entire banking industry. The two types ofloans accounted for 7.7% and 8.3% of the entire banking industry’s totaloutstanding loans, respectively.

According to experts, after a period of tightening credit for realestate enterprises, banks have begun to promote disbursement to real estatedevelopers, because the real estate market has shown signs of recovery in thewake of declining interest rates and the Government’s legal support underResolution 33/NQ-CP 2023 and Circular No. 10/2023/TT-NHNN on solutions toremove difficulties for the development of real estate market.

Banks have also increased lending to meet the increasing demand ofreal estate enterprises in the context of decreasing interest rates and anunfavourable corporate bond environment./.