Ho Chi Minh City’s economy is expected to rebound in the second quarter. (Photo: VNA) According to the report titled “Ho Chi Minh City MacroeconomicReport: 2023 Results and 2024 Forecast”, the city’s economy is forecast tocontinue to recover in 2024.
Reaching a growth target of 7.1-8% this year is possible if theglobal economy continues to recover favourably and measures to promote totaldemand are effectively implemented in the city, it said.
Based on data from the last quarter of 2023, the report indicatedstable economic recovery in the country’s largest city.
Total demand recovery is indicated in various indicators relatedto consumption, investment, and exports, it added.
Major export markets for HCM City and Vietnam as a whole,including the US, the EU, and China, are expected to grow at a modest pace,posing a challenge in promoting total demand recovery for the city.
However, the city’s economic outlook is expected to become betterin the second half of the year thanks to the city’s effort to disburse publicinvestment and measures to address bad debt and enhance liquidity in thebanking system.
HCM City posted growth of 5.81% in 2023, down from 9.03% in 2022.
The city also aims to attain 100% of State budget revenue targetsin 2024.
Despite the challenges ahead, the city has set a range of targetsfor the upcoming year.
The targets include increasing tourism revenue to over 190 trillionVND, attracting over 6 million international visitors, upgrading 100% of itsinformation technology infrastructure, having 297 classrooms per 10,000school-age residents, and aiming for 87% of its trained workforce to havecertificates or training qualifications.
The city also plans to create 140,000 new jobs and put into usethree general hospitals in Thu Duc, Hoc Mon, and Cu Chi districts.
Recommendations
To attain its target growth rate for 2024, the research group hasproposed several policy recommendations, including diversifying export marketsand expanding to potential markets such as Japan, the Republic of Korea, andIndia, as India currently has a stable and high economic growth rate.
It should focus on developing high-tech industries, financialservices, and managing and stabilising the real estate market to meet housingdemand and support production and business activities.
It should also prioritise expediting public spending, boostingconsumption, and resolve the challenges faced by businesses in 2024.
The city’s total retail sales of goods and consumer services in2023 increased by 10.8%, and total tourism revenue increased by 22% over 2022.
International visitors to the city increased by 44.3% and thenumber of newly established businesses increased by 10%.
Tourism revenue rose 25% from 2019 (before COVID-19) to 160 trillionVND (6.56 billion USD), the highest in five years.
Its industrial index recorded growth of 4.3% in 2023, higher thanthe national average. Services surged by nearly 6.8%.
Agriculture and seafood rose 1.53% while industrial industry andconstruction rose 4.42%.
However, experts pointed out that the city’s economic recoverywill continue to face challenges next year caused by global turmoil.
The real estate, stock and bond markets will continue facingobstacles next year despite a number of Government measures, they noted.
A number of businesses have been reporting a lack of export ordersdue to weak global demand.
The report, published by the University of Economics HCM City(UEH) in cooperation with the city’s Statistics Office, provides acomprehensive overview of the city’s economy in 2023, along with forecasts andprospects for 2024.
The report is expected to be published annually./.
VNA
